Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210628 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    105.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  16.1  15.2  15.9  14.7  13.8  15.0  18.8  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  75.1  66.5  54.8  36.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  51.0  46.0  56.0  59.0  16.0  30.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  69.0  65.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.1%       10.9%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h       25.2%       38.0%       31.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.1%       37.4%       27.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.2%       37.4%       26.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%       36.2%       23.2%
 45kt / 36h       18.9%       15.6%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%        6.4%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%       10.6%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%