Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210628 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  15.0  16.0  15.6  12.0  14.0  16.9  19.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  84.3  82.0  75.1  64.4  44.3  35.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  54.0  65.0  59.0  11.0  23.0  -1.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.2%        8.9%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       29.5%       24.4%
 30kt / 24h       15.7%       29.0%       22.4%
 35kt / 24h       12.6%       29.0%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.4%       29.0%       20.7%
 45kt / 36h       20.8%       11.4%       16.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%        4.3%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        8.4%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%