Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210628 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  15.4  14.6  13.2  14.7  16.7  18.7  16.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  87.0  82.3  77.9  65.5  52.7  44.6  26.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  62.0  79.0  45.0  42.0  44.0   5.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  65.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        4.4%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       15.0%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.3%       14.8%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       14.8%       10.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       14.8%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%        3.6%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        1.0%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        2.9%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%