Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210628 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  15.0  13.4  13.1  13.6  16.3  20.0  20.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.3  85.7  79.4  75.5  57.7  44.4  41.7  21.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  65.0  38.0  32.0  40.0  37.0  57.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%