Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210629 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  11.9  11.5  13.4  16.5  22.7  21.3  27.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.9  96.5  88.5  81.2  65.0  54.2  37.8  28.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  24.0   3.0  -3.0  25.0  49.0  22.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%