Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210629 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  10.9  12.5  14.5  18.6  26.0  27.5  27.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7  99.4  89.8  82.7  68.6  47.7  31.9  31.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  16.0  -3.0  23.0   3.0  33.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -9.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons