Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210629 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  13.0  15.2  16.2  19.8  22.3  27.4  27.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   8.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 112.9 104.4 100.5  76.5  50.7  41.6  41.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  -7.0  19.0  22.0  -3.0  52.0  -3.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.2%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%