Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  15.5  15.6  17.9  25.0  27.9  27.9  27.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  11.0  12.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 120.1 109.4  96.2  70.4  56.7  56.7  56.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   0.0  -1.0   5.0  34.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%