Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052021 210630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  17.6  20.6  25.0  25.7  25.7  25.7  25.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  94.4  81.5  67.9  50.9  50.9  50.9  50.9  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   0.0   1.0  21.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons