Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210714 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  13.6  14.3  13.6  13.9  12.7  11.3  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  32.0  21.0  10.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 114.4 110.5 103.0  99.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  32.0  46.0  47.0  30.0  19.0 -45.0 -26.0  U  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       27.0%       16.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%       12.6%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       12.6%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       12.6%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       31.4%       17.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%       14.6%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%       14.0%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%       12.9%        8.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       15.3%        9.6%