Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  14.6  14.4  17.1  11.1  14.9  10.7  14.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  24.0  11.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 122.0 115.1 106.5 102.4  94.8  91.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  61.0  42.0  32.0  14.0   9.0 -52.0 -71.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  56.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%       11.0%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.4%       43.6%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       30.2%       21.1%
 35kt / 24h       12.1%       30.2%       21.1%
 40kt / 24h       12.1%       30.2%       21.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.2%       46.6%       29.9%
 55kt / 36h        8.6%       27.8%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.7%        5.7%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%       18.1%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%       14.2%        7.8%