Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210714 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  13.0  14.7  13.2   9.6  13.6  12.8  14.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  11.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 104.6  97.9  93.6  87.4  85.5  78.0  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  33.0  33.0  29.0   0.0 -30.0 -79.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.6%       34.8%       38.7%
 25kt / 24h       47.2%       65.9%       56.5%
 30kt / 24h       46.7%       62.8%       54.7%
 35kt / 24h       46.7%       62.8%       54.7%
 40kt / 24h       46.7%       62.8%       54.7%
 45kt / 36h       30.7%       63.2%       47.0%
 55kt / 36h       22.8%       49.5%       36.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%        7.9%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%       25.1%       16.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%       12.6%        6.6%