Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  14.2  14.3  13.0  15.3  12.4  12.7  13.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.6  92.9  88.6  84.4  80.5  74.8  71.2  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  23.0  40.0  15.0 -10.0 -43.0 -25.0  24.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.2%       26.5%       29.8%
 25kt / 24h       36.9%       53.5%       45.2%
 30kt / 24h       31.3%       50.9%       41.1%
 35kt / 24h       31.3%       50.9%       41.1%
 40kt / 24h       31.3%       50.9%       41.1%
 45kt / 36h       20.1%       42.5%       31.3%
 55kt / 36h       13.9%       28.6%       21.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%       12.4%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%       11.8%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        7.0%        3.6%