Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  13.1  11.1  13.5  15.4  10.0  12.5   9.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  83.6  81.5  79.4  73.5  71.6  69.8  69.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  34.0  13.0   5.0   0.0 -69.0 -14.0 -10.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.2%       19.7%       21.4%
 25kt / 24h       28.8%       43.1%       35.9%
 30kt / 24h       28.8%       40.0%       34.4%
 35kt / 24h       28.8%       40.0%       34.4%
 40kt / 24h       28.8%       40.0%       34.4%
 45kt / 36h       14.1%       27.0%       20.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.6%       15.4%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        8.6%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.7%        2.4%