Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210715 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  11.7  14.1  15.9  11.5  10.2  13.4  13.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   6.0  11.0   2.0   2.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.7  66.5  64.4  62.4  58.5  56.6  58.5  60.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  10.0   2.0   1.0 -40.0 -21.0 -33.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.8%       26.7%       42.8%
 25kt / 24h       45.7%       37.6%       41.7%
 30kt / 24h       45.7%       37.6%       41.7%
 35kt / 24h       45.7%       37.6%       41.7%
 40kt / 24h       45.7%       37.6%       41.7%
 45kt / 36h       25.2%       22.8%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h       14.4%       14.0%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%