Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210715 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    119.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  12.6  14.4  13.4  10.4  11.7  11.4  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   6.0   9.0   6.0   1.0   6.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.6  59.4  57.4  55.5  51.6  51.6  53.5  53.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  16.0 -16.0 -12.0 -33.0 -27.0 -16.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  50.0  45.0  48.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.6%       18.9%       35.8%
 25kt / 24h       39.3%       23.0%       31.2%
 30kt / 24h       39.3%       21.3%       30.3%
 35kt / 24h       39.3%       21.3%       30.3%
 40kt / 24h       39.3%       21.3%       30.3%
 45kt / 36h       26.0%       15.5%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%