Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210716 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  12.7  10.0   7.8  10.3  13.2  10.7  16.2  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   7.0  10.0   2.0   1.0   8.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.5  52.4  50.5  48.5  44.8  44.8  44.8  46.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  12.0  15.0  30.0   5.0   0.0   8.0 -14.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.8%        8.8%       14.3%
 25kt / 24h       20.7%       13.8%       17.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.7%       10.6%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h       20.7%       10.6%       15.6%
 40kt / 24h       20.7%       10.6%       15.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons