Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210716 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    120.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  11.4   8.3  11.0  13.9  12.8  12.4  16.3  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   6.0  11.0   9.0   1.0   2.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.4  40.5  38.5  36.6  33.0  33.0  33.0  34.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  26.0  -8.0   5.0  -7.0   1.0 -33.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.0%        7.9%       17.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%        8.9%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%        4.5%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons