Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210716 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  10.5  11.2  12.8  15.0  12.0  15.1  20.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  10.0  11.0   4.0   0.0   5.0   9.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.4  30.5  26.6  26.6  24.8  24.8  24.8  24.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  25.0  -9.0 -24.0 -49.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.7%        6.6%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%        5.5%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons