Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210716 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2  11.9  13.0  15.4  15.6  12.4  17.6  19.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   8.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   8.0   6.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         23.5  21.6  19.8  19.8  19.8  19.8  19.8  19.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -50.0 -24.0   2.0   6.0 -11.0 -15.0 -34.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%        0.0%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons