Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210717 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    122.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  12.5  15.9  15.7  12.5  15.4  19.1  19.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.8  19.8  18.0  18.0  16.2  16.2  14.4   9.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -39.0  -5.0 -13.0 -20.0  10.0 -11.0 -11.0 -20.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  U VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons