Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210717 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  14.4  16.1  15.0  13.3  17.6  19.7  21.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.6  21.6  19.8  18.0  16.2  16.2  11.0   3.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -10.0 -34.0  -8.0  -3.0  24.0 -18.0   9.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons