Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.1  13.3  13.4  14.5  19.2  22.0  20.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.8   8.0   8.0   6.2   2.7  -0.7  -7.0 -12.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -37.0 -19.0 -14.0   0.0 -21.0 -18.0 -32.0 VU VU  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  47.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  48.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons