Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  12.0  13.0  15.2  19.6  19.8  20.3  17.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.2   6.2   4.4   2.7  -0.7  -7.0 -12.8 -14.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -27.0  -5.0 -12.0  -2.0 -57.0 -58.0 -42.0 VU VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  44.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons