Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210718 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  15.7  16.1  15.5  17.1  17.3  18.6  24.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.0   2.7   2.7   1.1  -5.0 -10.6 -12.0 -12.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -8.0  -6.0   0.0 -60.0 -21.0 -16.0 -40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons