Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210718 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  16.3  17.9  17.5  18.9  19.7  23.2  25.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.3   9.3   7.7   4.6  -4.2  -7.0  -7.0  -4.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -3.0   0.0 -34.0 -47.0 -75.0 -17.0 -41.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  43.0  43.0  U VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons