Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  23.4  21.6  19.2  21.9  26.7  29.4  36.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.6  18.6  15.8  13.0  11.7  10.4  11.7  17.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -19.0 -34.0 -18.0 -89.0 -49.0 -39.0  12.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  41.0  40.0  37.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons