Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  30.1  37.1  45.2  49.0  48.3  36.9  36.9  N  N  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.2  75.8  77.2  78.6  87.7  92.7  91.0  91.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -58.0 -26.0 -65.0 -38.0   4.0  23.0  11.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  43.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons