Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    138.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  39.2  43.9  45.8  47.8  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.2  82.2  85.0  89.6  96.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -60.0 -13.0  10.0 -31.0  16.0  16.0  16.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  53.0  49.0  49.0  49.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons