Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062021 210722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    147.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.6  40.2  35.4  36.1  37.4  38.7  44.3  49.4 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  11.0  16.0  12.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  96.0  96.0  94.3  92.7  92.7  92.7  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  14.0  20.0  -5.0 -27.0  -6.0 -20.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons