Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  13.6  18.8  17.1  22.7  23.6  22.3  19.8  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0   8.0   5.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 120.7 116.5 112.4 101.2  94.3  75.4  68.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  54.0  68.0  72.0  55.0  22.0  43.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0 -11.0  -9.0 -14.0 -18.0 -10.0  -6.0  N  F  F  F VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       16.1%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        6.4%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        6.4%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       18.8%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        7.5%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        2.6%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        6.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        5.2%        3.1%