Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  19.4  17.6  19.0  24.9  23.1  23.2  20.6  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   9.0   6.0   3.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 111.5 107.4  99.8  96.2  86.1  67.9  63.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  64.0  83.0  72.0  67.0  47.0  38.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -11.0  -7.0  -6.0 -19.0 -11.0 -14.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F VF  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        3.1%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       14.0%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        5.4%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.4%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        5.2%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       14.9%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        5.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.3%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        4.8%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%