Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  17.8  18.8  24.4  22.0  21.3  21.2  22.5  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   6.0   3.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 107.4 101.6  96.2  92.7  74.4  63.2  64.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  78.0  73.0  45.0   4.0  22.0  13.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -8.0  -7.0 -13.0 -17.0 -10.0 -11.0  -5.0 VF  F  F VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.1%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.2%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        2.2%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        1.9%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons