Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210718 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  20.0  23.0  25.6  24.4  23.1  21.2  20.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  91.6  86.2  84.4  74.6  56.7  52.0  54.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  70.0  30.0  51.0  27.0  -2.0 -10.0 -20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0 -12.0 -20.0 -11.0 -20.0 -10.0  -6.0  N  N  F VF  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        3.5%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        8.8%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        3.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        3.3%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        9.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        2.0%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons