Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210718 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.3  25.6  19.2  23.9  19.9  21.5  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.5  89.8  84.4  79.3  64.4  52.0  50.9  53.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  29.0  63.0  24.0  52.0   9.0  21.0  18.0  F  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -13.0 -16.0  -7.0  -8.0 -10.0  -8.0  -9.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        2.2%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        6.3%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.9%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons