Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210718 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  24.0  17.1  17.7  20.0  17.1  19.6  18.7  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  71.1  69.6  62.2  47.0  42.7  45.9  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  61.0  51.0  41.0  36.0   0.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -13.0  -6.0  -6.0 -17.0  -5.0 -13.0  -4.0  F VF  F  F VF  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons