Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    114.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  18.1  21.0  23.0  18.7  23.3  20.1  16.3  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.6  70.0  63.0  55.5  47.7  48.8  48.8  48.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  54.0  29.0  57.0  -9.0   7.0   8.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -9.0  -2.0  -8.0 -10.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0 VF  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons