Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210719 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.5  22.5  20.5  18.9  17.7  13.5  21.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  73.0  66.7  62.0  60.9  62.0  62.0  58.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  33.0   0.0  -4.0  12.0  16.0 -10.0   5.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -9.0 -18.0 -13.0  -4.0 -11.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  F VF VF  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons