Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072021 210720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  23.4  17.9  16.8  27.1  26.1  30.6  30.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  69.3  72.9  75.4  76.7  79.4  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  -2.0 -35.0 -11.0   0.0  27.0 -25.0 -25.0  U  U VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -13.0  -9.0  -5.0  -6.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons