Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  21.2  23.2  22.7  16.7  15.1  17.0  19.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  14.0   6.0   2.0   3.0  12.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 124.3 119.6 112.9 100.5  89.4  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0  82.0 114.0 101.0  76.0 118.0  76.0  53.0  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0  -4.0  -9.0  -6.0  -7.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%        6.5%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       37.8%       28.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       22.6%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       22.6%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       22.6%       14.0%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       42.5%       28.5%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%       21.4%       13.8%
 55kt / 48h       15.1%        5.9%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%       21.0%       13.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%       18.0%       11.1%