Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210731 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.2  17.4  15.2  16.6  15.0  16.2  20.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   9.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 117.0 114.6 112.3  99.4  88.0  81.0  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 112.0 112.0 113.0  85.0  87.0  81.0  35.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  72.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -4.0  -7.0  -7.0  -6.0  -7.0  -8.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        8.6%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h       27.5%       51.8%       39.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       41.7%       27.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       41.7%       24.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       36.0%       21.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       49.1%       32.1%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%       29.0%       17.5%
 55kt / 48h       16.6%        4.7%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%       22.1%       13.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%       17.5%       10.3%