Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  18.2  16.6  16.2  18.8  13.3  20.7  20.6  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.3 107.0 102.3  97.9  89.4  78.0  71.0  66.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  92.0  90.0  66.0  54.0  82.0  74.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  77.0  73.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  -2.0  -4.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.3%       31.2%       32.2%
 25kt / 24h       53.6%       71.6%       62.6%
 30kt / 24h       37.5%       70.0%       53.7%
 35kt / 24h       35.1%       70.0%       52.5%
 40kt / 24h       29.3%       67.7%       48.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.5%       63.3%       45.9%
 55kt / 36h       15.7%       48.3%       32.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.1%        5.0%       11.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%       28.0%       16.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%       14.1%        7.4%