Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  19.4  17.1  16.2  18.6  17.4  23.0  14.2  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.6  97.3  92.9  88.6  76.6  67.7  61.1  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0 100.0  84.0  70.0  84.0 107.0  46.0  75.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -8.0  -9.0  -9.0  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.3%       22.4%       27.8%
 25kt / 24h       46.3%       59.3%       52.8%
 30kt / 24h       38.0%       55.5%       46.7%
 35kt / 24h       38.0%       55.5%       46.7%
 40kt / 24h       38.0%       54.3%       46.1%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%       47.8%       36.8%
 55kt / 36h       13.4%       31.1%       22.3%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%        5.0%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%       16.5%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        7.5%        3.9%