Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.6  17.9  17.5  21.2  25.3  16.5   9.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.1  77.9  71.5  67.4  56.2  49.3  41.5  31.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  65.0  60.0  97.0  89.0 115.0  70.0  37.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -13.0 -10.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -9.0  -5.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       67.6%       40.1%       53.9%
 25kt / 24h       60.7%       70.7%       65.7%
 30kt / 24h       56.9%       70.7%       63.8%
 35kt / 24h       56.9%       70.7%       63.8%
 40kt / 24h       54.4%       68.5%       61.4%
 45kt / 36h       32.3%       43.8%       38.1%
 55kt / 36h       17.2%       28.7%       22.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        9.5%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%