Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    119.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  17.3  17.4  21.1  19.9  26.5  15.8  13.5  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   6.0   9.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.9  73.6  67.4  61.6  52.7  46.1  38.6  24.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  78.0  89.0 104.0 139.0  64.0  54.0   4.0  N  N  F  F VF  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -9.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0 -11.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       54.5%       25.7%       40.1%
 25kt / 24h       42.7%       44.6%       43.6%
 30kt / 24h       37.4%       43.9%       40.6%
 35kt / 24h       37.4%       43.9%       40.6%
 40kt / 24h       37.4%       43.9%       40.6%
 45kt / 36h       23.8%       23.8%       23.8%
 55kt / 36h       11.9%       12.1%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%