Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.9  24.8  23.9  27.6  25.4  16.5  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.0   7.0   8.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.7  71.5  65.5  59.8  51.0  43.0  34.4  20.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  77.0  93.0 115.0 109.0  76.0  64.0  57.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.6%        7.0%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       16.3%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       13.0%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        8.2%       13.0%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       10.5%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        4.8%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%