Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  25.7  26.1  26.1  28.3  21.8  16.7  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   5.0   8.0   7.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.6  69.4  63.5  58.0  49.3  41.5  30.4  19.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 102.0 114.0 128.0  83.0  95.0  90.0  21.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        4.1%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       10.3%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%        6.9%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.8%        6.9%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%        5.6%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        2.8%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons