Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    121.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  24.3  25.9  28.9  25.1  17.5  17.5  13.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.5  66.6  61.2  57.7  49.6  39.4  28.2  18.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0 106.0 102.0 110.0  87.0  62.0  58.0  36.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0 -10.0  -6.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.5%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        3.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.8%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.8%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons