Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  24.9  28.3  26.4  20.3  16.2  15.8  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.6  63.0  57.7  52.7  43.6  31.7  19.7  14.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0 126.0 114.0  70.0  70.0  63.0  33.0  37.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -9.0  -7.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.1%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.6%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons