Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  29.8  30.6  28.0  16.2  19.5  12.1  21.6  N  N  U  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.7  52.7  49.6  45.0  36.7  27.0  20.7  17.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 113.0  83.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  37.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0 -21.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.4%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons